The trip to Portland came at an incredibly difficult moment in the season: A US Open Cup semifinal was three days away, and following that Philadelphia Union would embark on a vicious six-match run through Eastern Conference foes that would strongly shape the outcome of their season.
Head coach Jim Curtin rested key players — giving Derrick Jones a chance to impress in midfield that he happily took — and the Union lost 3-0 to the Timbers. But there was something in the way they lost that galvanized the club to push on over the next weeks. Jones and Warren Creavalle held the midfield together, and Portland’s breakthrough came on a penalty kick at the tip-top corner of the box minutes after Philly had a big chance to take the lead. In short, it was typical of many of the “one-play” games Curtin has referred to this season: Philly went toe-to-toe with a quality opponent and fell just short.
No doubt the final score was frustrating, and it could have been a drag on confidence in the locker room. Instead, though, the players seemed to take it as definitive evidence that no matter who stepped on the pitch in the blue and gold — and no matter the opponent — they could compete. Because since that loss to Portland, Philly has been one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.
In fact, over the past five matches, eight teams in MLS have earned at least two points per game, but only three of those clubs are in the Eastern Conference: Atlanta United, Columbus Crew, and Philadelphia Union.
Of those three, only the Union have earned more than 2.0 points per game on the nose. Jim Curtin’s men are sitting at 2.6, a number that only record-breaking Seattle (3.0, of course) can beat.
And it is important to note: These have not been lucky results. Since Jack Elliott laid the hammer down on New England at Gillette Stadium, no opponent — including Orlando City — has recorded a cumulative Expected Goals total greater than 0.77. The average Expected Goals against for the Union this season? Over 1.3 xGA per game. Since Portland? 1.01, according to American Soccer Analysis.
Importantly, this lockdown on the back end has come without any cost to the attack: Philly’s full season Expected Goals For is around 1.7 xG per game. During the undefeated run: 1.89.
In a way, the draw with Orlando, disappointing as it was, has provided a fitting way to enter the international break for Philly. They started this run throwing punches with Portland but finishing with a vast gap between their Expected Goals in the game and the Timbers’ (aided by two penalties, of course). That the Union could come out of that match and still feel as though they were on the cusp of something big speaks to the belief the team has in themselves and their capabilities on the pitch. They have spent the next month making believers out of everybody else.
And the Union opened September by dominating Orlando City to the tune of over two (2.02) expected goals to 0.72, yet they didn’t get the win. Now those who jumped onto the high speed train shooting up the standings have to ask themselves if they still believe in the numbers that have, all season, indicated the Union are a good team. At this point, in fifth place with fourth a real possibility, the players themselves are well past belief.
They know.
