Minnesota United. New York Red Bulls. New York City FC. 270 minutes of soccer left in the 2018 season and Philadelphia Union are closing in on a second playoff appearance in three seasons. Only the New York teams will make the playoffs three seasons in a row (2016-2018), with the caveat that Atlanta United didn’t have the chance since they had not entered the league in 2016. Toronto continues holding on to slim hopes of making it three out of three, but it will take something truly magical to lift the Reds into the postseason this year.
The Union, Montreal, DC United, and Columbus Crew are all looking to make the playoffs in two of the last three seasons, but only three can fit behind Atlanta, NYRB, and NYCFC.
Where things stand now
The Union have 47 points, which is 5th most in the Eastern Conference and tied for 10th most in MLS. Seattle Sounders, also with 47, have a game in hand on Philly so they have more points per game than the Union.
If the season ended today, Philly and Columbus would face off in a one-off showdown in Columbus, Ohio and New York City FC would welcome Montreal Impact to town in the other play-in game. The winners would face Atlanta United and New York Red Bulls.
What’s left to fight for
Philadelphia can still collect nine more points this season. They have two home games remaining and a road match to end the season.
Saturday, October 6: Union vs Minnesota United FC — 7:30PM
Sunday, October 21: Union vs New York Red Bulls — 3:00PM
Sunday, October 28: Union at New York City FC — 4:30PM
The Union are one point behind Columbus Crew and six points behind New York City FC in the standings. Let’s look at home Philly could catch each team.
Columbus Crew
Current points: 48
Points ahead of Union: 1
Points available: 9
Remaining matches
October 6: Columbus at Montreal Impact
October 21: Columbus at Orlando City
October 28: Columbus vs Minnesota United
That’s a soft finish to the season. The Impact are a quality opponent, but the other two teams could not be a better fit for the Crew. Columbus struggles to score, Minnesota and Orlando struggle to defend. Put simply, Philly can’t rely on the Crew dropping many points. That said, all it takes is one slip from Gregg Berhalter’s team to open the door for the Union.
New York City FC
Current points: 53
Points ahead of Union: 6
Points available: 6
Remaining matches
October 21: NYCFC at DC United
October 28: NYCFC vs Philadelphia Union
This is interesting. If the Union win out they can catch and pass NYCFC in the standings even if the rivals to the north beat DC United. Here’s how that plays out:
Union win out, including a victory over NYCFC on the final day of the season.
NYCFC defeats DC United and falls to Philly.
Union finish with 17 wins and NYC finishes with 16 wins, giving Philly the advantage in the first tiebreaker.
If Columbus wins out, Philly would finish in 4th place ahead of NYC and behind the Crew. If Columbus drops at least a point, Philly would finish in third place and host a playoff match against the sixth place team, likely Montreal or DC United.
What to look out for
The Union aren’t just looking up in the standings; there are a pair of clubs coming in hot from behind.
Montreal Impact
Current points: 40
Points behind Union: 7
Points available: 9
Remaining matches
October 6: Impact vs Columbus Crew
October 21: Impact vs Toronto FC
October 28: Impact at New England Revolution
Yowza. That October 6 match against Columbus is big for both clubs. If the Impact draw or lose against the Crew, it’s very difficult for them to finish anywhere above sixth in the standings. Even if they drew against Columbus and won out while the Union lost all three matches, Montreal would finish even with Philly on points and wins, and they would have to make up an eight goal difference in goal differential to pass the Union in the standings.
Still, Philly has to be wary. Should the Impact knock off Columbus, they could face off against two teams with little to play for, and that could mean winnable matchups and a chance to reel in the Union.
DC United
Current points: 38
Points behind Union: 9
Points available: 15
Remaining matches
October 7: DC vs Chicago Fire
October 13: DC vs FC Dallas
October 17: DC vs Toronto FC
October 21: DC vs NYCFC
October 28: DC at Chicago Fire
Ah, MLS. Don’t ever change your crazy ways. DC United’s stadium wasn’t ready for the start of the season so the club cruises toward the end of the year on a flat track of home games before taking a flight out to Chicago to ease the struggling Fire into the offseason.
As with Montreal, if Philly win out DC cannot catch them. If Philly collect six points in their final three matches, they would do it by collecting at least two wins, which would keep them above DC on the first playoff tiebreaker even if the I-95 rivals pulled even on points. Anything less than six for the Union, though, and DC has a chance make a late pass.
Magic number
The Union’s magic number is the amount of points Philly must collect — or that teams chasing them must drop — for the Union’s postseason berth to be assured. Right now, that number sits at three. So if the Union win over Minnesota United and Montreal draws against the Crew, Philly is looking at a return to the postseason while DC and the Impact fight it out for the last spot above the red line (DC could still technically pass Philly, but Montreal could not, so either way the Union would have their heads above water).
The chase is on! But it could end as early as Saturday night in Talen Energy Stadium when the Union host Minnesota.
