Philadelphia Union are in the playoffs for the second time in three seasons, are on 50 points with six still available, and can finish as high as third in the Eastern Conference. They are currently starting two homegrown players at center back — neither of whom can legally drink alcohol — and feature the leading assist provider in Major League Soccer alongside a captain with a strong shout for best box-to-box player in the league this season in midfield. Every single starter up front and the first man off the bench are nightmare 1v1 matchups.
There are many other ways to highlight the Union’s growth since last season (e.g., third most road wins in the conference just behind the two clubs fighting for the Supporters’ Shield), but the most important one is undoubtedly the first: Philly is a playoff team in what would have been the end of the third year since Earnie Stewart helped clarify the club’s long-term vision and marry it to an on-field philosophy that has facilitated integrating youth into the first team.
Let’s catch up on how this weekend’s action affects potential Union playoff scenarios.
Where things stand now
The Union have 50 points, which is fourth most in the Eastern Conference and eighth most in MLS. Seattle Sounders face Houston tonight and could pull even with Philly on points with a win.
If the season ended this very minute, the Union would host a playoff match against Columbus Crew on either October 31 or November 1. The winner of that match would face either Atlanta United or New York Red Bulls depending on how those teams finish the season.
Union remaining matches
Sunday, October 21: Union vs New York Red Bulls — 3:00PM
Sunday, October 28: Union at New York City FC — 4:30PM
What’s left to fight for
With two matches remaining, the Union can finish with as many as 56 points. Notably, that means they can still surpass NYCFC for third place in the east. Even if they don’t catch New York City — which, given that Curtin’s men next face one of the only two teams to break the 60 point barrier thus far, is entirely possible — Philly can still play a crucial role in determining who they face in the knockout round of the MLS Playoffs. Columbus Crew is five points back of NYC with two matches to play, and both of Crew’s games are against teams they should easily defeat; Orlando City or Minnesota United have nothing left to play for beyond pride. If Columbus wins out and the Union knock off NYCFC in the final match of the season, the Crew would leap over NYC and leave the Light Blues and Union to face off in the opening round of the playoffs.
A brief stopover in Tiebreaker Country
Let’s take a breath to consider what happens if Philly ends up even on points with someone else in the standings.
MLS Tiebreakers
- Wins
- Goal differential
- Goals Scored
- Disciplinary points
Note here that MLS disciplinary points are hilariously arbitrary.
- Any foul: 1 point
- First yellow card: 3 points
- Second yellow card: 7 points
- Red card: 7 points
- Coach dismissal: 7 points
- Any supplementary discipline: 8 points
But don’t worry — it won’t get as far as Disciplinary Points for the Union. If they end up even with NYCFC by losing to NYRB and then defeating NYC, Philly will have more wins than NYC so they will take the higher seed.
If they end up even with NYC by beating NYRB and then losing to NYC, the Sky Blues will take the higher seed with 56 points.
In other scenarios:
- Should Philly lose out and the Crew tie their last two matches, the Union will have more wins and take the higher seed.
- Should Philly lose out and DC United win out, DC would have 53 points and end up above the Union
- Should Philly lose out and DC United win 3 of their 4 remaining games, the Union would still have more wins (15) than DC (14), so the Union would win the tiebreaker.
- Yeah, this does mean there is a scenario in which the Union, DC, and the Crew all end up even on points, and if that occurs the Union would take the highest seed.
What do the competitors have left
Columbus Crew
- Current points: 48
- Points behind Union: 2
- Points available: 6
- Remaining matches
October 21: Columbus at Orlando City
October 28: Columbus vs Minnesota United
Still a very feathery finish to the year for the Crew, but they will need to figure out how to score some goals ASAP. The underlying numbers suggest Columbus has been extremely unlucky in front of goal this season, and the Crew remain the only team in MLS yet to break the 40 goal barrier. But with only 180 minutes of soccer yet to play in the regular season, there’s too much variance to think with any certainty that Columbus is suddenly going to drop five in a match. But if they were going to do it? Orlando and Minnesota would be the perfect opponents to choose.
New York City FC
- Current points: 53
- Points ahead of Union: 3
- Points available: 6
- Remaining matches
October 21: NYCFC at DC United
October 28: NYCFC vs Philadelphia Union
Not much to say here except that October 28 has grown in importance since last we checked in on the MLS playoff race.
Montreal Impact
- Current points: 40
- Points behind Union: 7
- Points available: 6
- Remaining matches
October 21: Impact vs Toronto FC
October 28: Impact at New England Revolution
Is Montreal really going to end the season on a three match winning streak? It sounds unlikely in the abstract, but this is a team that has embraced the bunker-n-break mentality, and they have all the right pieces to do it successfully against a pair of opponents that have never fully wrapped their hands around their own systems this season.
DC United
- Current points: 41
- Points behind Union: 9
- Points available: 12
- Remaining matches
October 13: DC vs FC Dallas
October 17: DC vs Toronto FC
October 21: DC vs NYCFC
October 28: DC at Chicago Fire
DC United can catch Philly if they can romp through the rest of their schedule. It’s tightly packed, but Ben Olsen’s boys haven’t lost since the Union pounded them down, and, of course, DC only has to travel once.
Magic number
Zero! It’s zero. Zee-row.
Philadelphia has clinched a playoff berth, so don’t even worry about magic anymore. The real magic number now is one, which is how many assists Borek Dockal needs to become the best helper in MLS over the past two seasons.
Welcome to playoff country, Philly. Now let’s see how it all shakes out.
