A nine win run doesn’t come about by accident, but it does require a bit of luck.
And a bonkers-hot goalie doesn’t hurt either.
Right now, Seattle Sounders are on the longest winning streak of the post-shootout era of Major League Soccer. They have won nine straight matches and haven’t lost in 12. The current win streak is bookended by victories over Vancouver, but enclosed are defeats of FC Dallas, Portland, and Kansas City. This is not the soft run that Orlando went on in April; these wins are real.
Although…
First let’s deal with Stefan Frei. The Sounders’ goalie is in full-on Hero Mode this season, and he’s outperforming American Soccer Analysis’ goalie model by over 11.5 goals this season. The next closest goalie, Evan Bush, is over four goals behind that. In other words, the model thought Frei would have allowed about 37 goals this season and he’s only allowed 25.
There’s a bit of luck here, but also Frei has been doggone good. He’s aggressive and works well with his center backs to control everything that threatens the center of the box. Because of this, the average shot the Sounders’ big man has faced this season has come from nearly 20 yards away. Of regular starters in MLS, only Tim Melia and Jeff Attinella have faced an average shot from further away.
But Seattle isn’t just ordering a Biggie Frei and hoping for the best. They are also playing the lottery and scratching off winners far more often than they should be. During this nine match win streak, the Sounders have given up more Expected Goals while winning — not just tying, winning — on five occasions. Since they last did anything but win, Seattle has given up five goals, but they’ve given up 12 Expected Goals during that time.
They’ve scored 21, and notched over 14 Expected Goals.
Some of this may be system effects — the addition of Raul Ruidiaz and the re-emergence (for the millionth time) of Ozzie Alonso in midfield could be turning the Sounders into a Superteam. But chew on this: The gap between the number of goals ASA model’s thinks Seattle should have given up since their winning run began and the number of goals they’ve actually given up is 8.7 goals. This would be the 12th greatest difference between Expected Goals Against and Actual Goals Against of any team from the 2015 MLS season through today. And somehow the Sounders have achieved it in nine games. Hmm.
How to get at them
The Sounders don’t just protect their box, they also set up extremely well to counterattack once they recover possession. Nicolas Lodeiro is a master at connecting players together, and with Kevin Leerdam and Brad Smith he has fullbacks that can break out of the back quickly and punish teams that push their wingers into the box in attack. Around Lodeiro, Seattle is loaded with midfielders with big engines. The diminutive playmaker sits in the channels and links his central options with the fullbacks that play high up the pitch. This width from deep allows the Sounders to continually pack the center with their midfielders, and Lodeiro floats around as the ball switches sides, often connecting with Smith on the left flank and receiving vertical passes from Kee Hee on the right.
To control Lodeiro and Seattle, and to penetrate the home side’s defense, Philly needs to practice extreme patience. Forcing the ball up the gut on Seattle when you don’t have your own defensive structure in place can lead to quick counters, and the Sounders will get behind a retreating defense with their speed on the wings. So the Union need to move the ball around, draw out a defender or two, then penetrate.
Also — and this was a huge issue against Montreal — Philly needs to be thinking about their defense even when they have the ball. This idea of ‘possession defending’ a a big one for the Union, and difficult to master. It means being able to think about likely future scenarios after a change of possession even while you have the ball. Easy if you have the time; not so much when the match is at full speed.
In the end, the match will come down to whether the Union can control Lodeiro and move the ball in the final third with enough speed to open lanes in Seattle’s defense. There will be chances against the Sounders, but it’s been incredibly hard to finish them over the past two months. The Union’s finishing has improved since a slow start to the season, but it’s still one of the lower rates in the league. This would be a great game to break out.
