With four games to go in the regular season, Philadelphia Union have 46 points and sit just one point behind Columbus Crew for fourth place in the Eastern Conference.
Let’s give that some context. Start from Borek Dockal’s breakout match on May 19 against Real Salt Lake. From that point on, the Union have collected the third most points in the Eastern Conference behind only Atlanta United and New York Red Bulls. Philly’s 35 points in that span is also the fifth most throughout the entire league, and only one point fewer than Seattle and two below FC Dallas.
Columbus, meanwhile, has nine points fewer than the Union over that period. Even more intriguing are the differences in how the teams got to this point. Philly has done it with a fairly explosive attack: Only Atlanta, DC, and Toronto have more goals than the Union in the Eastern Conference since May 19. The Crew’s successes have come on the back of a very stingy defense — 26 goals against is five fewer than the Union — but their struggles have been driven by a lackluster attack. Only 21 goals for the Crew since that mid-May date is a lower total than everyone in the league except for Orlando City and Colorado. That’s right — even San Jose has seven more!
But it’s important to note that the Crew have been quite good at home, even if they’ve been middling overall. Two thirds of those 21 goals have come at MAPFRE Stadium and only 11 of the 26 goals against have come at home. In two matches this season, the Union have not scored on the Crew, so their ability to make adjustments and threaten Zack Steffen’s goal will be a key thing to watch.
The chase for a home playoff spot doesn’t just go through Columbus Crew, it goes through Columbus itself. And that makes Saturday’s match a more challenging task for Philadelphia Union.
System showdown
If the Union beat the Crew and leap into fourth place, they will also have shown they can use their developing system to punch back against the Crew’s finely tuned possession-based strategy. Berhalter’s team will look to control the ball and carry it out of the back by bringing all three midfielders into play and drawing Philly forward so they can access space in behind with narrow wingers and wide fullbacks.
The Union have not faced the Crew since early May — before Dockal, Cory Burke, and Fafa Picault ignited the Union attack — so Columbus has not seen Philly in rhythm. That ball movement can tear apart a team that gets expansive with the ball as Columbus likes to do, so watching how these systems interact and figuring out whether the Union can wrestle a match away from the Crew will be fun viewing.
Curtin vs Berhalter
Jim Curtin and Gregg Berhalter have only tied once, and that was on March 17 this season. Prior to that, Berhalter owned a 5-6-0 record over the Union head man that included a run of three wins to open their rivalry before Curtin hit back with a 2016 sweep.
In their last five meetings, Philly has taken two, Columbus has taken two, and the teams have split points once. None of those matchups have had as much on the line as this one.
What comes next?
This really drives home the importance of Saturday’s match.
The Union close out their season with:
Minnesota United at home
New York Red Bulls at home
New York City FC on the road
Columbus ends with:
Montreal Impact on the road
Orlando City SC on the road
Minnesota United at home
One of these schedules is tougher than the other. That said, the Crew have struggled on the road, so they could drop points in either of their two following the showdown with Philly. Meanwhile, the Union will need to be on their toes to hold off Darwin Quintero and Minnesota then get strong performances all over the pitch to take points off both New York opponents.
Right now, it’s all about taking it one game at a time for the Union. And that game? It can take them into fourth place.
