So what's the scenario: Looking at the numbers behind qualifying for MLS' coveted postseason

The Union finally got a few results to go their way this weekend, as both Columbus and Toronto lost leaving the door wide-open for the fifth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. With those results, the Union had a slight increase to their playoff odds, according to SportsClubStats.com, who now give the Union a 9.6 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. That number is up from 8.3 percent on Saturday morning.
Elsewhere, D.C. United clinched the first playoff spot in the East. They can clinch the conference’s best record this weekend with a win over Houston and a New England loss. Meanwhile, the Revs can clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win over Montreal, coupled with losses from both Columbus (here at PPL Park) and Toronto (one loss against either Houston or New York).
For a full explanation of what this all means, check out our first post for a complete rundown.

Thanks to New England beating Columbus last Saturday, the Union are almost in control of their own destiny – which is certainly hard to believe given the circumstances. But the fact is that if the Union can win out, they will pass Columbus regardless of other results. Also by winning out, it would force Houston to win each of their remaining four games to catch the Union (Houston would win the ensuing tiebreaker).
That only leaves Toronto, who has been slightly rejuvenated since the Union swept a home-and-home from the Reds one month ago. The bad news is Toronto sits a point ahead of the Union, in addition to having a game in hand. That will be settled this week, though, as Toronto plays a midweek game against Houston before traveling to New York Saturday night. Thus, without question, this is the biggest week of the season for the Union. Of course, if the results go Philly’s way, each of the next two weeks will be even bigger.
Elsewhere, as noted below, the Union cannot catch New England anymore, and have an outside shot of catching either Sporting Kansas City or New York. Rooting against New York, though, would not be wise for the Union. The Red Bulls still play both Toronto and Columbus this year, with New York wins greatly improving Philly’s playoff odds. The Union could still mathematically catch Sporting, especially with a head-to-head game, but making up eight points in three games would certainly be considered a longshot.
Regardless, here is the simplest road to the playoffs for the Union:
Wins over Columbus (twice) and Sporting Kansas City...and each of the following scenarios
One (1) Houston loss or one (1) tie
One (1) Toronto loss and one (1) tie ORtwo (2) Toronto losses  
Finally, here is an updated list of the magic number for the Union to pass each respective team on the following list:

With a full slate of games this week, there will be plenty to watch around the league. Here are the best-case scenarios for the Union:
Wednesday, Oct. 8
Houston win over Toronto (7:30 p.m., TSN, MLS Live)
Friday, Oct. 10
Chicago win over Sporting Kansas City (8:30 p.m., MLS Live)
Saturday, Oct. 11
New York win over Toronto (7 p.m., Univision Deportes, MLS Live)
Sunday, Oct. 12
D.C. United draw or better against Houston ( 3 p.m., MLS Live)
Thoughts on these scenarios? Leave a comment below.